Replacing the demographic dividend with the hottes

2022-07-25
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Replacing demographic dividend with reform dividend requires significant and far-reaching institutional change. Replacing demographic dividend with reform dividend requires significant and far-reaching institutional change. Introduction to China Construction Machinery Information: government investment plays an increasingly small role in stimulating economic growth, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector. ◎ history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery cannot increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, showing its fragile side

government investment has less and less pulling effect on economic growth, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector

◎ history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery can not increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, showing its fragile side

◎ China's economy is facing the long-term pressure of de stocking, de capacity and de leveraging. This process will be relatively long, and China's economic digestion capacity is much lower than before

◎ China needs to reform in many fields. Logically speaking, it should be easy before difficult, simple before complicated, quench the thirst of the near before diverting water from the far, and low cost before high cost

in terms of people, but in the detection of soft copper or annealed copper rods, the Chinese dividend is about to disappear. The prediction that China's economy will enter a slow growth has quickly become a reality, and the economic downturn is no longer a temporary phenomenon. However, for an economy with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ranking nearly 90 in the world and a urbanization rate of just over 50%, there is still a lot of theoretical space for future development. At present, what needs to be done is to optimize the allocation of resources, automatically complete the experimental process structure of the Ministry of finance, and improve the output rate, that is, to create reform dividends

the economic adjustment shows a long-term trend

the recent market expectations for the RRR reduction have failed again and again, but it does not mean that the monetary policy is not willing to relax, but that the demand has declined. In July, the newly increased credit was only more than 540 billion yuan, lower than expected. Bank lending did not exceed the upper limit of scale, so it is of little significance to reduce the reserve requirement. As for interest rate reduction, there is room in theory, but the market interest rate (including private interest rate and real loan interest rate) is still very high, so even if the effect of interest rate reduction is limited, in fact, the effect of monetary policy is usually better than that of easing. Therefore, according to the implementation of monetary policy in the previous seven months, it can be assessed that there is slack in stability and the effect is poor

the fiscal policy has played a positive role in maintaining the stability of the economy. For example, in order to make up for the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment, the investment in water conservancy construction has increased rapidly, and the investment in high-speed rail has also recovered. However, the role of government investment in stimulating economic growth is becoming smaller and smaller, and 62% of the investment depends on the private sector. In May, the national development and Reform Commission approved a number of investment projects in a centralized manner, but it only caused a small splash. Faced with the overcapacity of a large number of heavy chemical industries such as iron and steel, it is difficult to form effective investment even if new projects such as Baosteel and WISCO are approved. At present, many local governments have launched huge investment plans, but raising funds is a big problem. Even if the funds are in place, a large number of liabilities will eventually form, hindering the healthy development of the future economy

in terms of external demand, although the signs of American economic recovery are becoming more and more obvious, this round of American economic rise has not brought too many opportunities to China's export industry. On the one hand, the United States wants to revive the manufacturing industry to reduce the unemployment rate, on the other hand, it imports from lower cost markets such as Vietnam and Indonesia

history will not simply repeat itself. The U.S. economic recovery can not increase China's external demand, and China's manufacturing industry is too sensitive to labor costs, which also shows its vulnerability. It seems that China's economy is indeed facing the long-term pressure of de stocking, de capacity and de leveraging. For example, the process from PTFE extrusion to weaving will take a long time. Just as the current de stocking process is also longer than before, it shows that the digestion capacity of China's economy is much lower than before

reform bonus or show next year

demographic dividend is an economic term, which refers to the process of declining proportion of dependent population. At present, it has reached the inflection point from rising to falling, that is to say, the demographic dividend is about to disappear. The reform dividend is a term derived from the demographic dividend, which indicates that there is still room for further improvement of the system in China. Over the past decade or so, there have been fewer major reform events in China than in the 1990s, perhaps because the existing system and structure can still maintain high-speed economic growth. Of course, this also includes the advantage of demographic dividend. With the decline of economic growth, the existing structural problems and institutional defects are becoming increasingly prominent, and a forced reform mechanism will be formed

the areas that need to be reformed in China in the future include all aspects of structural imbalances in the past 30 years of rapid economic growth. From a broad perspective, there are imbalances in development and income distribution between urban and rural areas and between regions, between the government, enterprises and residents, between the central and local governments, between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, between enterprises and banks in terms of capital return, between high-income groups and low-income groups, and between high economic growth and the lagging social security system. There are many areas that need to be reformed. Logically speaking, it should be easy before difficult, simple before complicated, quench the thirst of the near before diverting water from the far, and low cost before high cost

this year's frequent financial reform is just in line with the above logic: first, most of the reforms do not need to formulate cumbersome operating rules, such as asymmetric interest rate reduction and giving room for deposit interest rates to rise. In essence, it is a market-oriented reform of interest rates, which means that banks can feed enterprises and quench their thirst. Moreover, this reform has high implementation efficiency and low operation cost. Second, the essence of financial reform is to relax financial regulation and break financial monopoly. It belongs to the total amount reform of the system, generally does not involve individual cases, and is not easy to be resisted by a vested interest group

the difficulty of the next reform lies in the reform of the fiscal and tax system. For example, the reform of the income distribution system is an important part of the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. It was previously reported that the overall plan would be introduced in the second half of the year, but so far we have not even seen the discussion draft of the reform plan, which is estimated to be difficult to be introduced as scheduled. Historically, most major reform initiatives were initiated at the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. Of course, the most famous is the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee, which launched China's reform and opening up. The Third Plenary Session of the Twelfth Central Committee will launch the city centered economic system reform, while the last third plenary session was to promote rural reform and development, including the pilot land system reform

based on this calculation, it is estimated that the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee will start the reform of the fiscal and tax system, and the discussion and formulation of the reform plan of the fiscal and tax system, such as the introduction of new taxes such as the reform of the tax distribution system, the reform of individual income tax related to income distribution, the real estate tax and even the inheritance tax, should take shape before the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. The fiscal and tax system reform is more difficult than the financial system reform, but it is more direct and targeted to improve the economic structure. If China's income gap can be narrowed through reform, it can effectively expand domestic demand and measure the change of indentation size before and after the experiment to calculate the wear and tear economic transformation. Moreover, the reform of the fiscal and tax system will inevitably involve the reform of the administrative system. Once the reform of the administrative system is started, it means that it will be a major and far-reaching reform. If it can be smoothly promoted, the reform dividend can be expected

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