The hottest Tianjiao shows signs of stabilization

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Tianjiao shows signs of stabilization in the short term, and the forward contract will rebound.

one week Market Overview:

the forward contract has rebounded, and there are signs of stabilization in the short term.

this week, Tianjiao prices showed a rebound pattern as a whole, and the price difference between the forward contract represented by the 811 contract and the 809 contract gradually returned, but the reduction of the overall market position shows that the momentum of the rebound of the forward contract is slightly insufficient, The phased bottom of the main contract 811 needs to be further confirmed

recently, the weather conditions in the main production areas of natural rubber in Southeast Asia are relatively good, and there is no obvious sign of strength in the prices of major spot markets. Tokyo rubber (23310270.00,1.17%, bar) market due to the continued strength of the US dollar and the fact that crude oil has not yet confirmed the medium-term bottom, the fund lacks obvious buying tendency, and the Japanese rubber still does not show obvious strength before the integer level of 300 yen, which has brought a negative impact on the rebound of Shanghai rubber. In addition, according to the National Bureau of statistics, the import of natural rubber in July was 128646 tons, down 13% year-on-year, while the production of tires and cars in July fell sharply year-on-year, indicating that the prospect of domestic natural rubber consumption is not very optimistic. This has also set a weak tone for the medium and long-term trend of natural rubber

in the short term, the game of main funds in the 809 contract has not been cleared up, especially the domestic spot price has continued to operate around 27000 yuan/ton, which provides a favorable support for the recent contract to maintain a high volatility pattern. Judging from the Tianjiao inventory released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange last Friday, the growth rate is still very slow. At present, the unilateral position of more than 100000 tons shows that half of the short positions are still empty, which also provides conditions for the short squeeze of the 809 contract. If the 809 contract is finally delivered at a high level, driven by the huge price difference, the possibility of a certain range of make-up in the forward contract will increase

recently, the crude oil price fluctuated sharply after hitting $110/barrel. Although it is not confirmed that $110 is the medium-term bottom of crude oil at present, from the perspective of the net position of the New York crude oil fund announced by the CFTC this weekend, which has maintained the clearance state for nearly a month and then returned to the net long position, the fund is not very pessimistic about the late trend of crude oil price, so it is unlikely that the short-term crude oil price will continue to fall sharply, Its influence on Tianjiao's fuming will also gradually weaken

from a technical point of view, the HJ 811 contract is expected to form a phased bottom below 22000. The continuous oversold of technical indicators provides conditions for the continuous rebound of HJ. However, in the medium term, the 20 day moving average will pose obvious pressure on Shanghai Jiao. Before effectively breaking through the shackles of the 20 day moving average, the rebound space of Shanghai Jiao is relatively limited

in terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on short-term wait-and-see, and try to be long after the 811 contract breaks through 23500

relevant Tianjiao market dynamics:

1. Major futures markets in the world (-)

changes in positions at the highest and lowest opening and closing of varieties

HuJiao 811 contract 21950 23245 21450 23080 +1305 -1774

rijiao 901 contract 300.5 311295.7 309.7 +9.2 +1737

New (RSS3) 809284.5 288 278 288 +3.5 +40

Japanese gum unit: yen/kg

Shanghai Jiao unit: RMB/ton

Singapore No.3 cigarette glue unit: cents/kg

Thailand No.3 cigarette glue unit: Thai baht/kg

2. Spot listing price of China Rubber No. 5 standard glue

time listing quantity average spot price up discount

2008/8/18 580 27371 +571

2008/8/19 580 27329 +784

2008/8/20 580 27350 +560

2008/8/21 441 26912 +222

2008/8/22 640 27313 +403

3 Spot price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone ()

variety origin market price unit price terms

RSS3 Thailand USD/ton bonded area warehouse picking up

str20 Thailand has no quotation for the time being USD/ton bonded area warehouse picking up

sir20 Indonesia USD/ton bonded area warehouse picking up

SMR20 Malaysia has no quotation for the time being USD/ton bonded area warehouse picking up

note: RSS3 quotation is 3150 USD/ton, The general trade cost is 28675 yuan/ton (2600 selective tariff, RMB exchange rate of 6.8357, freight of 30 dollars/ton, port miscellaneous charges of 200 yuan/ton.

the quotation of No. 20 standard glue is 3060 dollars/ton, and the cost of composite glue is 26148 yuan/ton.

4. The latest natural rubber outer disk price quotation (August 22)

variety origin market price unit price terms shipment date

RSS3 Thai dollar/ton CIF Chinese port September

SMR20 Malaysian dollar/ton CIF Chinese port September

str20 Thai dollar/ton CIF Chinese port September

sir20 Indonesian dollar/ton CIF Chinese port September

svr10 Vietnam does not offer us dollar/ton CIF Chinese port September

5 Malaysian spot market (SMR 5: Malaysian Standard No. 5 glue)

date SMR CV SMR l SMR 5 SMR GP SMR 10 SMR 20

324.1 316.2 292.1 291.2 289.1 288.5

at this time, the punch pressing depth (mm) 323.6 315.25 291 290.1 287.95 287.35

322 314.1 289.8 288.9 286.75 286.15

320.9 313.15 289.1 288.2 286.1 285.5

320.3 312.7 288.15 287.25 285.1 284.5

6 Thailand's official FOB quotation at noon (August 22)

type/grade F.O.B quotation

September, 2008 October, 2008

songka, songkaman Valley, Bangkok

cigarette glue RSS 1 98.05 97.80 98.25 98.00

RSS 2 97.45 97.20 97.65 97.40

RSS 3 96.90 96.65 97.10 96.85

RSS 4 96.60 96.35 96.80 96.55

rss 596.15 95.90 96.35 96.10

Thai standard glue STR 5L 99.50 99.25 99.70 99.45

str 597.60 97.359 7.80 97.55

str 10 96.90 96.65 97.10 96.85

str 20 96.50 96.25 96.70 96.45

concentrated latex 59.75 59 Introduced their recent situation 50 59.95 59.70

weekly latest data

1, the latest weekly inventory report of natural rubber of Shanghai Futures Exchange (August 22)

2, the total position and inventory ratio of Shanghai Tianjiao (as of August 22, 2008)

3, Tokyo rubber (23310270.00,1.17%, bar) fund position (as of)

4, the price ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japan rubber (as of August 22, 2008)

highlights of this week:


1 Malaysia's natural rubber inventory at the end of June was 118411 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%

according to Kuala Lumpur on August 18, the Malaysian Ministry of Statistics announced on Monday that Malaysia's natural rubber inventory at the end of June was 118411 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%

in June, the output of natural rubber decreased by 10.2% year-on-year to 88449 tons

in June, natural rubber exports fell 7.7% year-on-year to 74846 tons, and imports fell 9.3% to 42473 tons

domestic natural rubber consumption increased by 11.3% to 38566 tons

last week, Peter chin, Malaysian Minister of planting industry and commodities, said that Malaysia's natural rubber production this year is expected to decline by at least 1%-2% to about 1.18 million tons due to adverse weather conditions and labor shortages

however, Peter chin said that the decline in production may be moderately compensated for in the second half of the tapping season

2. China imported 128646 tons of natural rubber in July, a year-on-year decrease of 13%

according to the information of Shanghai on August 22, the data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday showed that China imported 128646 tons of natural rubber in July, a year-on-year decrease of 13%

in July, China imported 963457 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 11% year-on-year

China is the world's largest importer of natural rubber, mainly from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia

3. The growth rate of tire exports fell significantly in the first half of 2008

in the first half of 2008, China exported 160million tires, valued at $3.94 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.6 percentage points and 18.6 percentage points, respectively, and the growth rate fell significantly

according to the General Administration of Customs on August 15, customs statistics show that in the first half of 2008, China exported 160million tires (new pneumatic rubber tires) worth $3.94 billion, an increase of 4.6% and 22.1% respectively over the same period in 2007 (the same below), and the growth rate fell by 17.6 percentage points and 18.6 percentage points respectively

first, the main characteristics of China's tire exports in the first half of 2008

(I) after February, the export volume in a single month fell again in June. Since the second half of 2007, affected by factors such as the reduction of the export tax rebate rate of tires, the monthly export growth rate of Chinese tires has dropped significantly. In February 2008, China's tire exports reached 22.7 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% for the first time in many years. Since then, the export volume of each month has rebounded, with a stable growth rate of about%, but by June, the export of Chinese tires per month was 28.35 million, which fell again year-on-year, with a decline of 4.3%

(II) the export of processing trade was dominant, and the export of general trade fell sharply. In the first half of 2008, China exported 130 million tires through processing trade, an increase of 14.4%, accounting for 79.9% of China's total exports in the same period; At the same time, 31.7 million items were exported in general trade, down 21.6%

(III) the export proportion of radial tires increased. In the first half of 2008, China's tire export structure was optimized. Among them, the export of radial tires with relatively high scientific and technological content was 70million, an increase of 20.2%, accounting for 43.1% of China's total tire export in the same period, and the proportion increased by 5.6 percentage points over the same period in 2007

(IV) the United States and the European Union together account for half of the country. In the first half of 2008, China exported 42.27 million tires to the United States and 31.06 million tires to the European Union, an increase of 4.9% and 7.7% respectively, accounting for 45.1% of China's total tire exports in the same period. In addition, exports to Africa were 19.63 million, down 2.1 percent; Exports to Latin America reached 23.17 million, an increase of 8.5%

(V) export provinces are highly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. In the first half of 2008, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian all exported more than 10 million tires, with a total export of 130 million tires, accounting for 80.1% of the total national tire exports in the same period. Among them, Shandong exported 37.46 million, an increase of 3. It is necessary to make a breakthrough design for the existing experimental machine to change the functional concept, loading mechanism, control principle, etc 3%, accounting for 23.1%, continuing to maintain the status of the largest export province; Jiangsu exported 30.09 million pieces, an increase of 30.5%; Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian exported 25.36 million, 2007 million and 17.17 million respectively, showing a slight growth trend

II. The main reasons for the slowdown of China's tire export growth in the first half of 2008

on the one hand, with the rapid rise in the price of resources such as oil, the prices of the main raw materials used to manufacture tires, such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black and steel wire, are running at a high level. In addition, since July 1, 2007, the tire export tax rebate rate has been reduced from 13% to 5%, the rapid appreciation of the RMB, and the state has strengthened the management of resources and environmental protection, The profit margin of the tire industry has been squeezed, the advantage of "low cost and low price" of Chinese tires in the international market has been gradually lost, and the export momentum of tire enterprises has been significantly weakened

on the other hand, with the continuous expansion of domestic tire export scale, tire industry has become one of the industries that suffer the most frequent and frequent trade barriers in China's international trade. In particular, developing countries have become the main force of anti-dumping, the proliferation of goods involved from low value-added products to high value-added products, as well as trade protection means such as technical barriers, 337 investigation and public opinion pressure, The trade barriers encountered by China's tire exports are escalating, and the export environment is becoming increasingly tense

III. current needs

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