The hottest Tianjiao tentatively rose and is expec

2022-08-13
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Tianjiao's tentative rise is expected to rise again

at present, the main contract 1001 of Tianjiao is close to the key integer point of 20000 yuan. The author believes that the basic trend of Tianjiao's rise has not changed, and the fundamentals are still good. If it effectively breaks through 20000, it will usher in another wave of accelerated rise

After the baptism of the financial tsunami, China has adopted a series of macro policies aimed at stimulating economic recovery. With the support of active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, China's economy showed a steady recovery in the first half of the year. From the main economic data released in July recently by the government on the modification of degradable raw materials, products and logistics warehousing projects in Jilin and the production capacity side, it can be seen that China's economy continued the momentum of stabilization and improvement in the "opening" of the second half of the year, and this momentum is becoming increasingly clear. As an important industrial raw material, natural rubber has a strong market demand and a steady rise in price under the positive economic environment at home and abroad

the automobile industry, the largest consumer group of Tianjiao, whose prosperity has driven the progress of tire manufacturing. Since the beginning of this year, China has taken a series of measures for the automotive industry, including the reduction of car purchase tax, going to the countryside, accelerating the scrapping of old cars, and the "old for new" of cars, which has effectively promoted the booming production and sales of China's automotive industry and effectively promoted the rapid recovery of the tire industry

car sales were relatively light in July in previous years. In July this year, car production and sales changed from the decline in previous years, and went out of a strong off-season market. The production and sales of that month remained at the level of more than one million vehicles for the fifth consecutive month. In July, the automobile output was 1.1096 million, with a month on month decrease of 3.77% and a year-on-year increase of 52.15%; Car sales were 1085600, down 4.95% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 63.57%. From January to July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 7.1009 million and 7.1844 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.23% and 23.38%. In terms of tires, 7powertest2.0 must back up the L, W, e and experimental schemes under the software installation path as the solution temperature increases China's tire output in the month of MDB files and database files under the names of their bin folders and data folders increased by 6. 5% over the same period last year The equipment can be started normally by 5%, reaching 57.18 million. The total tire production from January to July increased by 4.9% to 365.6 million. The above data shows that China's rubber consumption demand continues to pick up

in addition, the "special warranty case" of Chinese and American tires, which is widely concerned at present, is heating up. In the face of the rapid expansion of Chinese tires in the U.S. market, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) once again moved out the magic weapon of tariff barriers and proposed a three-year special tariff on Chinese tires for passenger cars and light trucks, with the proportion reaching 55%, 45% and 35% respectively. If the above "special insurance case" is passed, China's tire enterprises will face huge losses. At present, the Chinese government and industry associations have put forward sufficient defense reasons, and have a firm attitude, actively respond to the lawsuit at all costs, and there is a great possibility of winning this trade "special protection case"

in terms of spot goods, affected by tight spot supply and strong buyer demand, since August, the shipping price of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue (RSS3) has fluctuated in the range of 198 to 208 cents/kg; The spot price of the domestic e-commerce center fluctuated between 17900 and 18010 yuan/ton, and the macro benefits occurred frequently, which was fuelled by speculation, and the spot market "Rose". In addition, according to Singapore news, the output of the original planting areas of major rubber producing countries will be reduced due to the impact of the conversion project. It is expected that the global production of natural rubber will decrease before 2011, which also raises the expectation of rubber prices

the recent typhoon "Morakot" is expected to affect the production of natural rubber in Vietnam and southern China, which will support the price of Shanghai Rubber and boost investor confidence

at the same time, the trend of international crude oil and the US dollar will also have an impact on the trend of rubber. Synthetic rubber, the substitute of natural rubber, takes crude oil as the main raw material, and the proportion of the two types of rubber in the production of tires accounts for almost half of the total consumption. Therefore, there is a strong linkage between natural rubber and crude oil. At present, crude oil has stabilized around $70, supporting the price of rubber. In addition, if the U.S. dollar index enters the downward channel for a long time as the market expects, it will exacerbate inflation expectations and drive up commodity prices

moreover, since 2009, investors tend to regard the stock market as a leading indicator of economic operation, from which they learn about the oil demand, so the trend of crude oil prices is mostly affected by the trend of the stock market. At the end of the two-day interest conference in the United States, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that the current benchmark interest rate range of 0 to 0.25% would remain unchanged, and the interest rate would remain low for a long time. The sharp rise in the U.S. stock market and the decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate together pushed crude oil up sharply. However, after the EIA released the report that crude oil inventories increased by 2.52 million barrels last week, the increase in oil prices decreased slightly, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of U.S. crude oil

"small Dutch talents show sharp corners". The market pursuit emotion caused by the first wave of rubber market is expected to open up the space to accelerate the upward again after the desire to do more kinetic energy savings

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