The hottest Tianjiao restarts a new round of gains

2022-08-14
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Tianjiao restarted a new round of gains

recently, with the international crude oil, gold, copper and other bulk commodities hitting new highs, driven by factors such as increasing consumer demand and recent tight supply, Shanghai Jiao rose sharply for two consecutive days yesterday, which is expected to end the adjustment since early February and launch a new round of gains

first, the global consumption of natural rubber is strong, and there is a gap in supply. According to the latest statistical report released by the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) this month, the global consumption of natural rubber reached 8.742 million tons in 2005, an increase of 5.08% over the consumption of 8.319 million tons in 2004, while the global production of natural rubber in 2005 was only 8.682 million tons, an increase of 0.43% over the production of 8.645 million tons in 2004. It can be seen that the growth rate of natural rubber consumption is far greater than that of production. Moreover, the excess production and demand of natural rubber in 2004 was 326000 tons, while there was a gap of 60000 tons in 2005. The gap between production and demand can only be filled by digesting inventory. At the end of 2005, the global natural rubber inventory decreased from 2.413 million tons at the end of 2004 to 2.353 million tons. Due to the good growth momentum of the global economy, especially the promising development prospect of the tire industry, it is expected that the global supply of natural rubber will remain relatively tight in the next few years, and the long-term price of natural rubber will still have further momentum to rise

secondly, the international export resources of natural rubber have decreased, and the gap between supply and demand of domestic natural rubber has widened, so the supply of natural rubber resources is worrying. In Southeast Asia, the world's major rubber producing areas and natural rubber export areas, Malaysia has changed from the largest exporter of primary products of natural rubber in the past to the exporter of deep processed products for the needs of developing its own rubber industry and industrial upgrading. The export volume of primary products of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia will also gradually decline. Major rubber producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have introduced measures to restrict the export of natural rubber. According to the prediction of the Indonesian tire manufacturers association, the production capacity of Indonesian tires in 2006 will reach 69.6 million, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, including 41.7 million car tires. At the same time, in recent years, China's tire industry has developed rapidly, and the demand for natural rubber is increasing. However, due to the resource supply constraints in the production areas, the potential of natural rubber production to replace pistons and oil cylinders in the production plant is limited in the production process. Coupled with the destruction of typhoon and other disaster factors, the gap between supply and demand of natural rubber in China is increasing, and the supply of natural rubber resources is worrying. In 2005, China's tire output reached 318million, an increase of 28.3% over 2004. In January this year, China's tire production was 55.791 million tons, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year. According to the prediction of the international rubber research organization, the consumption of natural rubber in China will reach 3-4 million tons in the next 10-15 years, accounting for 1/4-1/3 of the total consumption of natural rubber in the world. In recent years, the self-sufficiency rate of natural rubber in China has been declining, and it is expected to drop to less than 20% in a few years

thirdly, the international crude oil price is high and the substitution effect of synthetic rubber is limited. Affected by international geopolitical factors, there is pressure on crude oil supply. Driven by abundant funds led by funds, the international crude oil price is high and difficult. Recently, the crude oil price in New York is close to $70/barrel again. The rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of downstream products such as synthetic rubber, indirectly supporting the price of natural rubber. However, in the tire industry, the main consumption area of Tianjiao, the substitution effect of synthetic rubber is limited, especially the radial tire with strong development momentum at present. According to insiders, synthetic rubber is generally used as tread, and a small amount of it is also used on the sidewall and carcass, but the performance of tires will be affected if the total amount exceeds 10%. According to the statistical report released by the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) in April, the global consumption of synthetic rubber reached 11.917 million tons in 2005, an increase of 4.81% over 2004, while the global combined or temporary monopoly production of synthetic rubber in 2005 was 11.965 million tons, a decrease of 0.11% over 2004. It can be seen that not only the consumption growth rate of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber in the same period, but also the output has declined. In fact, since last year, the price rise of synthetic rubber has been significantly weaker than that of natural rubber. This can be seen from the downward trend of the price percentage of natural rubber tsr20/styrene butadiene rubber in the United States. In the first, second, third and fourth quarters of 2005, the ratio was 83.9%, 84.3%, 102.8% and 111.9% respectively

finally, the spot price was strong and the transaction of natural rubber was active. After the fall adjustment since the beginning of February, the domestic natural rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of domestic No. 5 standard rubber production area has rebounded to more than 20000 yuan/ton. On April 12, the average transaction price of No. 5 standard glue increased by 1.45% to 20848 yuan/ton; No. 20 standard glue rose by 3.31% to 18700 yuan/ton. The resulting twists and turns in the price of glue have warmed up, which has once again stimulated the popularity of the futures market. On April 12, the trading volume reached 295050 hands, a new high in the past two years, and the position has also increased by 3454 hands, reaching 73014 hands. The popularity of market bulls has gathered again

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