The hottest Tianjiao rabbit year weakens the bull

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Tianjiao weakened the bull market outlook in the year of the rabbit. Pay attention to the change window period

on February 9, Shanghai Jiao opened high and closed low. Nevertheless, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Jiao still hit a record high. Compared with the pre holiday period, Tokyo gum rose nearly 30 yen/kg, and broke through the integer level of 500 yen/kg. The rise of Tokyo rubber equivalent to more than 350 US dollars/ton pushed the Shanghai rubber price to continue to set a new record, saying that the rubber bull market will continue tomorrow. However, the author believes that the Tianjiao bull market is in the tail stage, and investors should weaken the bull market view

first of all, the current rubber price deviates from the crude oil price. For a long time, there has been a high fluctuation correlation between rubber price and oil price. If we superimpose the K-line chart of Tokyo Jiao and crude oil prices through software, we can clearly see that there is a high degree of volatility coordination between the two, and the deviation between the two is not sustainable in the long run

the reason why oil prices are highly consistent with the price of natural rubber is that the raw materials for the production of synthetic rubber, which accounts for half of the rubber consumption market, come from the downstream products of crude oil. Although there is no great substitution relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber, the value of cross reference between prices still exists objectively. In addition, the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil, the end product of crude oil, is related to the utilization rate of cars, while the consumption of tires, the main end product of Tianjiao, is also related to the production and use of cars, which is another important factor in the close relationship between the price of crude oil and the price of Tianjiao. If we analyze from the utilization rate of the number of cars, and there are many so-called fire-resistant B1 composite polyurethane materials in the market today that have not really reached the national mandatory standards, new materials are widely used in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, wearable equipment, aerospace and ordnance industry, and they consume both crude oil and tires, then the use demand will not lead to an exaggerated deviation between the price of crude oil and natural rubber. Therefore, the factors that lead to the deviation of natural rubber and crude oil prices are mainly concentrated in the supply link of natural rubber market itself and the new car manufacturing link

in 2010, China's automobile manufacturing exceeded 18million, and the world's automobile production has also exceeded the 73million mark set in 2007. All this gradually became clear after entering the second half of 2010. At the same time, during the tapping season, Thailand, the main producing country in Southeast Asia, suffered a rare flood disaster, so there was a blowout in the price of natural rubber after August 2010, which has continued until now. Although there can be a deviation between the prices of crude oil and natural rubber in the end demand link, the reference relationship between the prices of synthetic rubber and natural rubber can also gradually converge. The price deviation between the two can either be made up by the price of crude oil, or the rising trend of natural rubber is close to the end, and the writer is more inclined to judge the latter

secondly, strong policy signals are reminding the risk of inflation. If we say that the cancellation of preferential policies for automobile consumption before the year is to "defuse" the automobile market, then the interest rate hike policy introduced on February 8 undoubtedly further reminds us that regulating inflation is the top priority of the government's work this year. After the first interest rate hike in 2011, the one-year deposit interest rate has risen to 3%. Although there is still a distance from the inflation level, for the huge credit lines accumulated before, the increase of interest rate will undoubtedly increase the use cost of market funds. The rising cost of capital, rising labor costs, high raw material prices and other factors will be a huge test for real enterprises. Once the terminal enterprises that support the price of natural rubber have a survival crisis, there will inevitably be an outcome of "no eggs under the nest". Of course, the intervention of speculative forces is not controlled by the supply and demand sides of the Tianjiao market. The foam can bring speculative profits, and the bursting of the foam will also cause great harm to the whole industrial chain

the author believes that at present, the position of HuJiao with huge profits held by investors can still continue to dance with the "mad cow" until the violent fluctuation of more than 6% occurs, and the "opening a new position at the top of the oxtail" may not be worth the loss. At this stage, the operation strategy suggested by the author is not to increase positions more, not to touch the top, and to keep an eye on market changes before the "two sessions", because March is mostly a window period for changes

note: this reprint has been widely adopted by pharmaceutical companies, distributors of perishable products, third-party logistics enterprises and airlines all over the world. The source is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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