The hottest Tianjiao is expected to get out of the

Tianjiao is expected to get out of the double bottom reversal

after the recent seasonal decline, the central weight-bearing core of the artificial intervertebral disc is the current rebound market of PCU. Among them, the new main force 811 contract rebounded from the lowest price of 21450 yuan/ton on August 19, and now it has reached about 23070 yuan/ton. From the technical statistics of the past 10 years, the end of August and the beginning of September is a key time, during which the probability of rubber price bottoming in one year is 75%. Recently, as crude oil returns to the upward trend, how will the future market of rubber prices be interpreted? The author believes that the Shanghai Jiaotong 811 contract will have a relatively large upward market after the second bottoming

first, the international tension led to the rebound of crude oil

Russia and Georgia had an armed conflict due to the South Ossetia issue, and the relationship between Russia and Western countries has become tense recently. Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 26, which was opposed by the United States, Britain and France. At present, there are three U.S. warships, four Turkish warships, one warship each from Spain, Germany and Poland in the Black Sea region, and eight NATO warships will arrive. Russia is also a major oil producer, and the escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region is bound to have a great impact on crude oil. There is a clear correlation between crude oil and rubber, and the rise in oil prices has a huge impact on the rubber market. The US crude oil index fell from 147.94 US dollars/barrel on July 11 to 113.06 US dollars/barrel on August 12, with an adjustment of 23.58%. So far, crude oil has received strong support around $110/barrel, and will rise slowly in the future. On August 27, Nobuo Tanaka, CEO of the International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy Observatory under the OECD, said that from the second half of this year to 2009, although the oil price has fallen from its peak of nearly $150/barrel earlier this year to about $115/barrel, there are still many risks in the crude oil supply side, which may push up the price again. The economic growth of non OECD countries' mechanical property experimenters dedicated to prestressed steel strands may be stronger than expected, making the current satisfactory oil market situation unsustainable in 2009. The impact from the "China factor" is also huge. The restrictions on coal and electricity during the Chinese Olympic Games and the strict management of roads have made many enterprises in a state of semi shutdown. However, from September 2, all production enterprises will increase their horsepower to make up for the capacity loss caused by the semi shutdown during the Olympic Games, which will increase the demand for international crude oil. Therefore, the oil price will not fall significantly in the near future, and the slow rise is the most likely whether the machine can move or not

second, the unrest in Thailand supported the strengthening of rubber prices

at present, the Thai Democratic League held a protest against the occupation of television stations and rushed into the presidential palace, accusing the Samak government of being the agent of Thaksin Shinawatra regime and demanding that the Samak government step down. Phuket airport in southern Thailand continued to be closed due to demonstrations on August 30. It was the fifth day since the protesters occupied the prime minister's office of Thailand on August 30. On the same day, the Prime Minister of Thailand vowed never to resign. The military refused to implement the state of emergency and suggested that the prime minister consider resigning. Whether the incident escalated remains to be seen. If it continues, the cutting progress of natural rubber will slow down, and the road transportation will be blocked. In addition, the recent rainfall in Thailand and Malaysia will delay the cutting of natural rubber in some areas. At the same time, Indonesia will also enter the deciduous period, and the supply of natural rubber will be limited in the future. In addition, the volatile situation in Thailand also led to the decline of the Thai baht exchange rate, which will push up the rubber price

third, the demand turns to the peak season to promote the recovery of the rubber market

June, July and August of each year are the demand season of natural rubber, and this period is the peak season of natural rubber production, so it is not surprising that the price of natural rubber at the end of August is the lowest in the whole year. Since September, as the gum trees gradually enter the defoliation period, the output gradually decreases, but the demand will slowly move towards the peak season. At the same time, during this period, tire manufacturers will purchase a large number of raw materials, Tianjiao, which has a strong support for the price of Tianjiao

IV. building a double bottom of the moving average is expected to rise in the future.

from the technical form of Tianjiao, the Tianjiao 811 contract has rebounded to near the downward trend line composed of the previous high of 28590 yuan/ton and the secondary high of 25990 yuan/ton, and will fall in the future. However, the 5-day moving average has been above the 10-day moving average, indicating that it will rise in the short term, and the 10-day moving average has also turned around and will soon be above the 20-day moving average. Last Thursday, the rubber price rebounded to near the 30 day moving average, and encountered relatively large resistance. Coupled with the pressure of the downward trend line, it fell back on Friday and Monday. Therefore, Tianjiao 811 contract will be under pressure for adjustment in the future, and it is impossible to pull out a large upward market with the current position. It is necessary to make a downward correction and store enough energy to rise again. The downward adjustment to seek support should be around 23000 yuan/ton. If you stand firm at this price, you can be long in the medium and long-term layout. If this point cannot form an effective support, it is possible to return to the previous near low of 21500 yuan/ton, thus walking out of a double bottom reversal pattern. When the position is effectively enlarged, the medium and long-term can be appropriately long

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